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Greenwashing:
public relations boosterism
What is greenwash?
Concise Oxford English Dictionary, Tenth Edition
greenwash (n):
"Disinformation disseminated by an organisation so as to present an environmentally responsible public image.
Derivatives greenwashing. Origin from green on the pattern of whitewash."
Ecocentrism:
Eugene not "number one Green City"
"World's Greatest City of
the Arts & Outdoors"
world's most absurd slogan
TREES:
Transportation, Energy,
Environment, Sustainability |
TRANSPORTATION
after Peak Oil
WETLANDS Alternative:
West Eugene Transportation,
Land and Neighborhood
Design Solutions
West Eugene Collaborators:
Bypassing Sustainability:
Planes, Trains, Automobiles
Green Building & Boondoggles
ENVIRONMENT
Protection and Restoration
- ecoforestry:
selective logging to restore tree farms to forests
no clearcuts or biocides,
value added products
- green business, clean industry
myco and bioremediation,
- zero discharge
ban toxics to protect public health
carbohydrate
economy, no petrochemicals
- reduce garbage: waste is a terrible thing to mind
- intelligent (urban) design:
beauty not ugliness
(prevent strip mauls, billboards)
Polluted Air and Water
- Clearcutting the Cascades
& Coast Range
- Aerial Herbicides blanket our forests
- Slash pile burning - a huge waste of trees
- Toxic Eugene:
Plywood glue factories
Railroad pollution
wood preserving
- Grass Seed Capital of the World:
Pollen and Smoke Pollution
- Nano-pollution info at oilempire.us
ENERGY
for the Year 2025
Region 2050 & limits to growth
- build solar panel and wind turbine
factories
- convert grass seed farms to grow
biofuels
- require passive solar design in
building codes
- relocalize production to reduce
consumption
(fewer delivery trucks)
- retrofit buildings: conservation
& renewables
- initiatives for sustainable jobs after Peak Oil
SUSTAINABILITY
is not efficiency, it is zero petroleum
- paradigm shifts: psychological and political
- beyond boom and bust: steady state
economy
- local food security,
more community
gardens,
teach gardening skills at neighborhood levels,
protect farm soils
from "development"
regional inventories of food production and
processing
- economic stability needs democratic
decisions,
Campaign Finance Reform
- public health: single payer health
care
- support local economy:
strengthen
local businesses,
build downtown Farmers Market
not Whole Foods predator,
ban big box megastores & franchises
Human Rights City?
- Chinese Olympics
- June 1, 1997:
pepper spray used on
peaceful protestors
- rapist cops convicted of felonies
- scaring toddlers
- tasers
greenwash groups:
Activist Malpractice
Disasters:
preventative, permaculture perspectives
Disaster Mitigation and Land Use:
-
Eugene needs intelligent (urban) design
Hospitals, Earthquakes, Floods,
and Lahars
Troubled Bridges Over Water:
the I-5 bridge crisis
West Eugene sprawl in floodplains: WEP, Target megastore, Royal Node
subdivision
The Long Emergency:
Peak Oil and
Climate Collapse require paradigm shift
Katrina disaster shows the Federal
government response: we are on our own
Eugene: the bubble
| Earthquakes
“Most bridges in the area have not been seismically retrofitted,
creating significant risk to the commuting population from earthquakes.”
Oregon's Regional Natural Hazards Risk Assessment (regarding the southern
Willamette Valley)
http://csc.uoregon.edu/pdr_website/projects/state/snhra/snhra.htm
If a large earthquake happens in the wintertime, it could trigger landslides
on rain-soaked hillsides. If it happens in the summertime, it could trigger
forest fires (from downed electric lines and burst natural gas lines). A good
depiction of these scenarios is Marc Reisner's book "A Dangerous Place:
California's Unsettling Fate" (Penguin Books, 2003). Reisner is also the
author of "Cadillac Desert," widely regarded as the definitive book
on water conflict in the western US. While "A Dangerous Place" is
focused on seismic impacts in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas, the social
impacts of a major earthquake in Cascadia would be comparable.
The 11 earthquakes and tsunamis took place roughly between 300 and 5,400 years
ago, with an average occurrence interval of about 510 years (Note: Scientists
estimate the chance in the next 50 years of a great subduction zone earthquake
is between 10 and 20 percent, assuming that the recurrence is on the order of
400 200 years. The last great subduction zone earthquake occurred about 300
years ago).
Geologic Hazards on the Oregon Coast -
Earthquakes and tsunamis documented at southern Oregon coast
From the Spring, 2002 issue of Oregon Geology
– http://www.oregongeology.com/earthquakes/Coastal/OrGeoEqNTsu.htm
Disaster Brewing Off Oregon Coast
Oregon Evaluating Earthquake Threat
Cascadia Subduction Zone poses greatest earthquake threat to Eugene area; some
structures are more stable than others
November 2, 2005
By Emerald editorial board
Oregon Daily Emerald
Photo: Andre LeDuc, program director for the Oregon natural Hazards Workgroup,
points out the potential dangers of Hendricks Hall. (Kate Horton | Photographer)
The greatest natural disaster Eugene or the University may ever face is brewing
just off the Oregon coast.
Tsunamis, landslides, fires, building damage and significant loss of life could
occur throughout the Northwest if there is an earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction
Zone, an 800-mile-long fault that stretches from British Columbia to northern
California and poses the largest earthquake threat to Eugene.
A massive earthquake from the fault would be devastating.
The ground will shake for several minutes. Tsunamis of nearly 30 feet in some
areas will batter and flood the coast. Areas with soft soil will liquefy and
structures will move. Dams may fail. Aftershocks will be shattering and can
last for months. Roadways will crack and bridges will collapse. Utilities and
telephone services will be lost for at least a day. Thousands will be living
out of emergency shelters. Police and emergency responders will not be able
to respond to everybody in distress.
A Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake last ravaged the Pacific Northwest in
the evening of Jan. 26, 1700. Geological predictions show that subduction zone
earthquakes occur every 300 to 500 years.
It’s an event we expect to see again, said University geology professor
Ray Weldon.
The December 2004 magnitude-nine earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean
and the devastation wrought by hurricanes Katrina and Rita have increased the
public’s anxiety about natural disasters. Locally, Eugene and the University
have focused attention on developing hazards mitigation and emergency response
plans. On campus, several treasured, historical buildings are not up to seismic
codes and could crumble in a large earthquake. City buildings holding critical
facilities could partially collapse. A major earthquake may also destroy dams
and trigger a tsunami that could wreak havoc on the University’s coastal
campus, while roadways and utilities may be out of service for days.
There are ways that people, the city and the University can prepare for this
catastrophic event, and many measures to mitigate the potential devastation
of a subduction zone earthquake are already under way.
Photo: Police and other city-owned vehicles are parked beneath City Hall when
not in use. The building is not up to current seismic codes and could potentially
collapse in the event of an earthquake. (Kate Horton | Photographer)
But Weldon said the absence of scientific input in emergency plans hampers
planning. Not knowing for sure what to expect in the event of a major earthquake
doesn’t help either.
Politicians tend to deal only with political day-to-day problems, Weldon said.
It is more difficult to deal with something that has a 10 percent chance of
happening in 100 years.
This leads to “lack of preparation for a small probability, but catastrophic
event,” Weldon said.
Dangers on campus
A recent study by the University’s Oregon Natural Hazards Workgroup
found several campus buildings will experience moderate to great damage in a
massive earthquake. These buildings include Straub Hall, Prince Lucien Campbell
Hall and McArthur Court.
Other buildings, such as Hendricks, Deady and Friendly halls, have a lesser,
but still high risk of experiencing moderate damage.
Hendricks, Deady, Friendly, Gerlinger, Condon and other campus buildings contain
unreinforced masonry bearing walls, which are generally brick exteriors with
concrete or wood flooring. Unreinforced masonry buildings are particularly hazardous
during a subduction zone earthquake with long durations of ground shaking, according
to the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup, a regional non-profit group.
In Feb. 2005, the Federal Emergency Management Agency gave a $100,000 grant
to the University to assess hazardous risks on campus and develop a plan for
mitigation, said Andre LeDuc, ONHW program director.
Straub Hall is a high priority for retrofitting because the Department of Public
Safety is located there. Straub Hall could potentially cripple DPS’ ability
to respond to an emergency, LeDuc said.
Currently, DPS is only accessible through a tiny corridor between two older,
damage-susceptible buildings. In the event of a major earthquake, DPS could
be made inaccessible by falling debris from the buildings and a fire escape
that could block the alley, LeDuc said.
The ONHW Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan discusses putting a potential DPS emergency
command center outside of the Straub Hall location in preparation for an earthquake,
LeDuc said.
ONHW has not performed any disaster mitigation planning for the Oregon Institute
of Marine Biology in Coos Bay, but plans to in the future, LeDuc said.
A city-wide catastrophe
A study by the city of Eugene estimated a subduction zone earthquake could
cause $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in building damages in Lane County. Injuries
are estimated to be about 2,700 for an earthquake during the day and 700 for
an earthquake at night. Approximately 48 people will be killed during a daytime
earthquake and more than 10,000 people will need emergency shelter, according
to the study.
These numbers are based on data from the 1990 census. Information from the 2000
census may increase damage and casualty estimates by 14 percent, the study said.
Moist, sandy soil can liquefy during an earthquake, causing foundations to sink
or shift and seriously damage buildings, bridges, roads and pipelines, CREW
wrote in a 2005 report.
A study by the Oregon Department for Geology and Mineral Industries for the
Eugene/Springfield area found hazardous soil covers 10 percent of the total
area.
Two critical city buildings, a 911 call center and public works shop are located
in this area, but were built with seismic considerations, said Chuck Solin,
Eugene emergency program manager.
However, city hall, parking structures and community buildings are still a great
risk, Solin said.
Built in the 1960s, city hall does not meet current seismic building codes and
would be significantly damaged after a major earthquake, Solin said.
The majority of Eugene police vehicles are parked and stored beneath city hall.
After a major earthquake, the building may partially collapse damaging and cutting
off use of those vehicles, Solin said.
“They’re toast,” Solin said.
Two previous ballot measure granting funds to rebuild police facilities failed,
said Michael Penwell, Eugene facilities design and construction manager.
The city is currently involved in developing a plan to rebuild city hall, a
process that could cost more than $100 million.
If city hall is no longer operable after a major earthquake, then the city plans
to relocate temporarily to the new public library, which was built to the most
stringent seismic standards, Solin said.
Threats to dams
A major earthquake could cause dams to break, according to the Eugene Multi-Hazard
Mitigation Plan.
Lane County dams were designed and built in the 1940s to 1960s, the plan states,
and were not built to current seismic code.
“In the mid 1960s, we didn’t think earthquakes could happen in Oregon
at all,” Solin said.
Seismic considerations were completely absent in the design of Fern Ridge Dam,
which was built in 1941 and is located on the Long Tom River, west of Eugene.
A liquefiable sand layer lies under the dam as part of the structure’s
foundation, said Jim Hinds, dam safety program manager for the Portland district
of the Army Corps of Engineers.
This could cause the dam to move downstream, Hinds said.
Fern Ridge Dam is currently under repair for an insufficient drainage system,
but the sand foundation will not be repaired at the same time because of lack
of money, Hinds said. Evaluation of the foundation’s danger is not complete
and engineers don’t know how it will affect the dam, Hinds said.
Failure of the Fern Ridge Dam would have a great impact on the Junction City
area, but will not have a direct effect on Eugene, Hinds said.
Hills Creek Dam, built in 1962 and located on the Willamette River, will create
the greatest potential havoc on the Eugene area, Hinds said, adding that it
would create a domino effect and cause Lookout Point and Dexter dams to break
also, he said.
However, the greatest danger to the Hills Creek Dam is not a Cascadia Subduction
Zone earthquake, but a crustal event, which occurs about every 2,500 years,
Hinds said.
Failure of a dam would create massive flooding, destroying bridges and roadways.
“It would be catastrophic if one of these structures failed,” Hinds
said.
Hinds stresses that dams are heavily monitored by engineers and are continually
under seismic inspection.
In addition, a number of earthquakes worldwide in past 10 years have shown embankment
dams, like Fern Ridge and Hills Creek, performing better than expected, Hinds
said.
Unprepared infrastructure
The Oregon Department of Transportation has conducted an intense analysis
of seismic conditions for all roadways and bridges in the state over the last
several years, said Lou Torres, an ODOT spokesman.
In Lane County, ODOT is working on several bridges and overpasses, Torres said.
Currently, the Interstate-5 bridge over the Willamette River is a temporary
structure, which ODOT aims to replace permanently by 2010, said Tim Potter,
ODOT Region 2 bridge geo/hydro unit manager.
However, the temporary bridge was designed without extreme seismic considerations,
Potter said. In the event of a major earthquake, these bridges would probably
not collapse, but might not be usable, he said.
Eugene Water and Electric Board non-headquarters facilities and warehouses,
built in 1952, harbor the majority of EWEB’s response vehicles, equipment
and supplies, and they are susceptible to collapse in an earthquake, said Lance
Robertson, EWEB spokesman.
“It would definitely hamper our ability to get power turned back on in
timely way,” Robertson said.
The need for scienceScientific input is critical in developing disaster emergency
response plans, geology professor Weldon said.
“There’s a tendency for political or economic interests to basically
ignore science if it’s difficult to deal with,” he said.
Weldon used the example of Lane County Emergency Manager Linda Cook only having
one available staff member to assist in disaster preparation for the entire
county.
Weldon said the city’s plan for disaster mitigation and management covers
the ground, but is not very detailed and could use additional scientific input.
“Nature doesn’t really care if we’re paying attention or not,”
he said.
http://www.dailyemerald.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2005/11/02/436894b63d88c
JUNE 1999:
ONE OF CENTRAL OREGON'S DAMS COULD COLLAPSE IN A MODERATE EARTHQUAKE, prompting
federal officials to warn people immediately below Wickiup Reservoir to flee
to higher ground at the first sign of ground movement. "If people can
feel an earthquake in the area, it's probably going to be strong enough to
do something to the dam," said Larry Wolf, dam safety expert with the
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in Boise.
It is the first time in the Northwest that the bureau has advised residents
to evacuate as standard practice during an earthquake. "Certainly we
don't want to create panic, but we want people to be aware," he said.
The dam is about 20 miles [32 kilometers] south of Bend and much closer to
a number of upscale developments, including Sunriver, which can be packed
with 20,000 people on a summer day.
The bureau estimates that floodwaters could endanger roughly 10,000 people.
However, Wolf said there would be time for most people to evacuate. The flooded
area would roughly follow the channel of the Deschutes River, extending beyond
the banks for more than a mile in some places, he said. Because the river
channel flattens in some developed areas, floodwaters would take about 14
hours to reach Bend, he said. An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 on the
Richter scale could cause a catastrophic failure of the 2-mile-long earthen
dam. However, he said the chances of such an earthquake are estimated to be
about one-tenth of 1 percent each year. Wolf characterized the risk as remote
but real. P The Klamath Falls earthquakes in 1993 were pegged at magnitudes
of 5.6 and 6.0, and the Scotts Mills earthquake earlier that year in the Willamette
Valley hit 5.6.
Wolf said data collected at the dam in recent years indicated that the saturated
silt and ash layers of earth beneath the dam could liquefy during an earthquake.
The dam was completed in 1949 and holds up to 200,000 acre feet of water,
or enough water to cover 200,000 acres to a depth of one foot. The water is
used primarily for irrigation in Jefferson County. Wolf said reclamation engineers
have suspected for years that Wickiup Dam was at risk. Those fears were confirmed
with additional analysis and testing last year. In February, the bureau decided
it needed to warn local authorities and the public about the situation and
to undertake a $40 million renovation project.
Jim Mumford, who heads the bureau's dam safety division in Boise, said these
are far more specific warnings than the bureau has ever issued to Pacific
Northwest communities. For example, when the Ochoco Dam near Prineville was
at some risk of failing several years ago, the bureau told residents to contact
local emergency service officials if there was a problem with the dam. But
with Wickiup, he said, there won't be time to await instructions from officials.
"This is the first time where we're saying, 'Don't wait for notification.
The earthquake is the notification,' " he said. The bureau also has designated
escape routes, then posted fliers and sent brochures to area homeowners with
maps of those routes. Larry Zakrajsek, who does risk analysis for the bureau,
said the agency did not rush to warn people partly because the danger is small
and the dam has functioned well for 50 years.
By Gordon Gregory, Correspondent, The Oregonian The Spring Break Quake of
1993, which rattled buildings across western Oregon and caused $30 million
in damage, was a harbinger of an 8 or 9 magnitude quake that is in Oregon's
future, geologist Donald Hull tells legislators. "It's been 299 years
since the last such event," Hull said. "The window of vulnerability
is open again." Hull, who is Oregon's chief state geologist, hopes the
Legislature will set aside money for better mapping of earthquake hazard zones
and for public safety campaigns to let people know what to do when the Big
One hits.
The department has been able to retrofit about 60 bridges since the Spring
Break quake, but ODOT estimates that at least 1,500 other bridges in western
Oregon are in need of at least some earthquake strengthening. Frank Nelson,
ODOT's bridge preservation engineer, said eight more bridge projects are planned,
and that the department might be able to do an additional four if lawmakers
approve a gas tax increase for road repairs. Those projects should at least
be enough to keep Interstate 5 -- Oregon's main north-south lifeline -- open
in the event of a major earthquake, Nelson said.
Scientific evidence shows that major offshore earthquakes occur off Oregon's
coast once every 350 to 500 years. The last one, in 1700, drowned coastal
forests and sent tsunami waves across the Pacific so powerful that they destroyed
Japanese fishing villages. Such a quake would not only devastate Oregon coastal
communities, but inland areas as well. "The Willamette Valley is a big
trough full of loose soils, gravel, sands and silts," he said. "When
earthquake waves travel through that kind of sediment, they get bigger; they
amplify. I'm just praying it won't happen in my lifetime."
Senate President Brady Adams said lawmakers are aware that Oregon is due for
another huge earthquake. "It's hard to define in a specific time frame
what the risk is. Is it going to happen tomorrow, or 200 years from now?"
the Grants Pass Republican said. "There's no question the threat of earthquakes
is real, but we also know we have school funding and other needs that are
before us today."
Hull said he can't argue with that logic, but still thinks the Legislature
should consider increasing at least to a small degree its financial commitment
to preparing the state for the Big One. "There's nothing else in our
foreseeable future that's going to be as devastating," the state geologist
said. "It's not going to do us any good to fund education programs if
the school buildings end up falling on kids' heads."
From the Associated Press MAY 1999:
SEATTLE -- New research indicates that a massive earthquake could occur
directly underneath the Oregon Coast Range and the western portion of the
Willamette Valley. For nearly 15 years, scientists have warned that a magnitude
8 or 9 earthquake could strike about 30 miles [48 kilometers] offshore and
rock the coast, causing severe shaking and huge tsunamis. However, recent
data gathered from satellites by scientists at Oregon State University and
three other institutions show that the colossal quake could hit much farther
inland and cause more severe damage to a larger area -- including the more
populated cities of the Willamette Valley such as Portland, Salem and Eugene.
No one knows when such an earthquake might strike the Northwest, but the geologic
evidence suggests that such quakes occur about every 400 years, plus or minus
200 years. The last major earthquake on the Oregon coast -- believed to be
a magnitude 9 -- occurred 300 years ago, previous studies showed.
The research team found that the locked portion of the Cascadia Subduction
Zone -- where the eastward-moving Juan de Fuca Plate plunges under the western-moving
North American Plate -- extends beneath the Coast Range and as far as the
western side of the Willamette Valley. The locked zone probably is wider than
previously thought, although the new data give less information about the
width.
The researchers expected to find little movement because of the lack of earthquakes
and previous data that showed little uplift in central-western Oregon, something
commonly associated with a locked subduction fault. Instead, they found that
the ground is moving nearly half an inch a year toward the northeast. The
rapid velocity worries earthquake researchers and indicates that the underlying
plates are locking up rather than sliding by each other, resulting in incredible
strain.
As the Juan de Fuca Plate presses forward to the northeast in the locked zone,
it causes the piggybacking North American Plate to bulge upward and inland
toward the northeast. The pressure continues to build for years until an earthquake
unleashes the stress in one powerful jerk, causing the bulge to collapse and
forcing the area to drop instantly.
"We were very surprised by the results we got," said Goldfinger,
an OSU assistant professor of oceanography. "It was quite different from
what we expected. We thought this would be an area that would show little,
if any, movement." The half-inch of movement each year is imperceptible,
but the accumulated pressure that has been stored since the last major earthquake
in 1700 can only be unleashed in an earthquake.
"That means there's been 300 years of strain that will be released,"
said John L. Nabelek, a seismologist and OSU associate professor of oceanography
who participated in the study. "And it's just not the proximity of the
strain to larger cities that is a concern, but we've found that the surface
area of the entire locked zone is much larger than previously thought. That
means a larger quake."
Goldfinger said the data suggest that the two plates are "essentially
bolted together -- they're 100 percent coupled.
"In addition, the Coast Range is an extremely strong, rigid block of
rock that is more than capable of accumulating the sort of energy you need
for a large earthquake."
The new findings have made Goldfinger, who in previous years argued that the
largest subduction-zone quake was more likely to be a magnitude 8 than a 9,
rethink his theory. "This changes my views 180 degrees," he said.
"The whole argument for an 8 rather than a 9 disappears." Although
quakes of either size would be devastating, shaking from a magnitude 9 event
would last two to three minutes -- about twice as long as the shaking a magnitude
8 quake would produce.
Researchers elsewhere in the Northwest have come up with similar results using
the satellite-based Global Positioning System. The locked zone between the
plates extends farther landward beneath Washington and Southern Oregon as
well, and a little farther under Vancouver Island than previously thought.
A larger research effort, planned next year, will examine an area from Northern
California to Canada, including Portland.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a 750-mile [1207 kilometers] long fault that
runs 60 to 150 miles [96 to 241 kilometers] offshore from British Columbia
to Northern California. Similar subduction zones have produced the two largest
recorded earthquakes in the world -- a magnitude 9.5 quake on the coast of
Chile in 1960 and a magnitude 9.2 quake in southern Alaska in 1964.
No quakes of that size have been measured in Oregon's brief recorded history,
but evidence from buried marshes along the coast indicate that such events
occurred at least seven times in the past 3,000 years. The last one hit the
coast in January 1700, and large quakes appear to have struck about 1,100
years ago, 1,300 years ago and 1,700 years ago.
Curt D. Peterson, a professor of geology at Portland State University who
has uncovered many of the buried marshes along the Northwest coast, said the
new research supported his decade-old theory that the locked zone might be
twice as wide as thought and capable of generating a huge quake.
"I hope this new evidence is going to help planners and government agencies
get back on track about the seriousness of the hazard. The metro areas such
as Seattle and Portland need to examine what a magnitude 9 means in terms
of the whole region going all at once," Peterson said.
Mark Darienzo, earthquake and tsunami program coordinator for the Oregon Office
of Emergency Management, said the study supported concerns that a huge subduction-zone
earthquake "is not just a coastal problem, but could be an inland problem
as well."
"More research is needed," Darienzo said, "but these new findings
show that the potential for such a quake can't be overlooked -- it shouldn't
be just tossed aside."
By Richard L. Hill of The Oregonian staff
AN EARTHQUAKE THIS SIZE THREATENS A TERRIBLE TOLL -
SEATTLE -- The figures jolt the imagination: more than 5,000 deaths, nearly
8,000 people injured, 30,000 buildings destroyed, $12 billion in economic
damage. Those are the extensive losses Oregon might face in a magnitude 8.5
earthquake from the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast, according to a
study by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.
In addition, a subduction-zone quake along with earthquakes on many faults
throughout Oregon -- those that have a 10 percent chance of producing a quake
in the next 50 years -- would result in at least 25,000 injuries, 80,000 buildings
destroyed and more than $31 billion in economic damage.
"As large as those figures are, they're conservative estimates,"
said Yumei Wang, a geotechnical engineer with the Geology Department who co-wrote
the report with Lou Clark, an agency geologist. "But they give the public
a better idea of what the effects of destructive earthquakes could be in Oregon."
Wang discussed the recently released report this week in Seattle at the 94th
annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America. The study provides
the first estimates of the quake-related losses that each of Oregon's 36 counties
could experience.
The estimates were produced using sophisticated computer software developed
to determine earthquake risks. It combines information about a variety of
factors, such as geography, buildings, demographics, economics, ground shaking
and soils. The estimates were given for two models: one that looks at the
impact of a magnitude 8.5 subduction-zone quake and the other that looks at
total earthquakes on many faults in Oregon in a 500-year period -- or those
faults considered to have a 10 percent chance of producing an earthquake in
the next 50 years. The report was done before new findings were announced
that show a subduction zone quake could hit much farther inland, possibly
making damage and death totals even higher.
Scientists worry that a quake from the subduction zone, where the North American
and Juan De Fuca plates converge, could be as powerful as a magnitude 8 or
9 quake. Oceanside communities would be especially at risk because of their
proximity to the zone and because they could be struck by a quake-generated
tsunami.
But Oregon also is at risk from earthquakes along crustal faults, such as
the magnitude 5.6 Scotts Mills quake in March 1993 that caused $30 million
in damage and the magnitude 5.9 and 6.0 quakes near Klamath Falls in September
1993 that caused $10 million in damage.
Wang and Clark said the 60-page report, "Earthquake Damage in Oregon:
Preliminary Estimates of Future Earthquake Losses," underestimates the
property damage, injuries and fatalities because the computer model did not
take into account tsunamis from an offshore quake or unreinforced masonry
buildings, the most hazardous type of structure in an earthquake. The study
indicated that 100 people would die in a subduction-zone quake and 500 people
would die in all quakes.
However, Wang calculates that unreinforced masonry buildings could result
in 2,000 fatalities, while a tsunami would kill more than 3,000 people. "The
tsunami estimate is low because it's based on the populations of low-lying
coastal communities," she said. "That number could greatly increase
during the tourist season when there are thousands of more people on the coast."
In addition to loss of life and property, the study also estimates these effects
from a magnitude 8.5 subduction quake:
• One-third of schools would be unusable.
• Nearly one third of broadcasting stations would be shut down.
• About one-third of essential facilities such as police stations, fire
stations and emergency-operation centers could not function.
• About 17,300 households would be displaced.
• About 18 percent of highway bridges would be knocked out.
"There's a large margin of error in the numbers," Clark said, "and
we're working to refine those. But what this study does is enable people to
look at the impact of a big earthquake on their communities. With these numbers,
people can start to understand why we need to pay attention to this hazard
and local communities can start figuring out how much they want to devote
to planning for this."
By Richard L. Hill of The Oregonian staff Wednesday May 5, 1999
 
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